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PBA Module  ·  NOURI-IAERAU OS

For Performance Marketers · Media Buyers · Ecom Operators

Stop Reacting
to Metrics.
Start Modeling
Campaigns.

A structural campaign modeling engine for Meta & Google advertisers.

Upload your ad CSV → PBA computes a stability scalar, classifies your exact regime, and delivers a bounded budget signal — before your spend reacts to noise.

Sound familiar?
✗You scaled too early — the activation was a spike, not a basin lock.
✗You killed the ad that was about to recover from oscillation.
✗You held a dead campaign because the numbers hadn't caught up yet.
PBA detects all three — before your budget pays the price.
  • Media buyers managing real Meta / Google budget
  • Ecom operators running direct response at scale
  • Funnel builders who need signal clarity, not more dashboards
  • Quant-minded operators who want structure, not gut calls
Start Modeling Campaigns — $29 / Month

Instant access  ·  Cancel anytime  ·  Browser-based  ·  No download

Includes full NOURI-IAERAU OS access · All modules included

Live PBA Output — Real Campaign Data STABLE
S_L Stability Scalar — 30 Periods
Regime
STABLE
Campaign behavioral state. Drives all guidance signals.
ACTIVE % · periods above θ_on
33.0%
% of periods S_L exceeded activation threshold. Window density.
S_L Range
−4.38 → 2.91
PCA composite scalar bounds. Derived from all KPI dimensions.
◆
Budget Signal N_reco · Bounded: −1 to +1 Hold spend steady — minor adjustments only. Campaign is in stable basin. Maintain targeting width. D_reco: optimize creatives and landing page within current audience pool.
Real output · pba_ads_kpis_example.csv · PCA (PC1) + sign-lock + hysteresis

The Decisions That Cost You

01
You Scaled Too Early
The CPA looked good for 48 hours. You doubled budget. Then it collapsed. That wasn't a stable campaign — it was an activation spike without basin lock. PBA classifies the difference in real time.
02
You Killed the Recovery
The ad's metrics dropped. You killed it. Three days later a similar creative blew up. That campaign was in oscillation — not collapse. Hysteresis gating would have held your position.
03
You Held a Dead Campaign
The ROAS was still "okay." You kept the budget live. S_L had already entered collapse regime 5 days earlier. The number lagged the signal. PBA reads the signal — not the lag.

Every one of these is a detectable regime state.

Why PBA Exists

Every Other Ad Tool

Reacts to averages.
Always a step behind.

  • Tracks CTR, CPC, CPA in rolling windows — no structural understanding of what is actually happening
  • Cannot distinguish regime collapse from temporary oscillation — you get the same alert for both
  • Budget decisions driven by short-term metric noise — reactive, emotional, expensive
  • No model of audience redistribution — just raw impression counts and click totals
  • You killed good ads and held dead ones. Both decisions cost real money.
PBA — Perfection Basin Advertising

Models behavior.
Reads the state, not the noise.

  • Computes instability scalar S_L(t) — PCA composite across all KPIs — the structural health of your campaign
  • Classifies your exact regime: Dormant / Activating / Stable / Oscillating / Collapse / Recovery
  • Hysteresis gating anchors budget decisions to state transitions — not metric dips or 3-day windows
  • Redistribution signal D_reco shows whether audience attention is deepening into core or fragmenting outward
  • You hold confident positions. You scale on signal. You stop paying for noise.

How It Works

Three Steps.
One Clear Decision.

Raw Metrics CSV
→
PCA Projection
→
S_L Scalar
→
Regime Classification
→
N_reco + D_reco
01
Upload
Export your campaign CSV from Meta, Google, or any ad platform. PBA auto-detects spend, impressions, clicks, CTR, CPC, CPM, conversions, CVR, ROAS, and revenue. No mapping required in simple mode.
→
02
Compute
The engine runs PCA composite modeling across all KPIs, applies sign-lock constraints to prevent signal inversion, and uses hysteresis gating to classify your exact campaign regime and produce S_L(t).
→
03
Act
The Action Panel tells you exactly what your campaign needs. Not raw numbers — directional, bounded signals derived from regime state.
  • Regime state classification
  • N_reco: budget signal (−1 to +1)
  • D_reco: targeting signal
  • Exportable JSON audit record

What You Get

Six Outputs.
One Confident Move.

◈
Regime Classification
Your campaign is always in one of six states. PBA names it: Dormant, Activating, Stable, Oscillating, Collapse, or Recovery. Stop guessing which one you're in.
Computed via hysteresis on S_L · θ_on = p75 · θ_off = p55
◈
Stability Scalar S_L(t)
A single composite signal derived from PCA across all your KPIs. Rising S_L means activating. Falling S_L means decaying. The direction tells you everything the averages hide.
PCA (PC1) weighted · sign-locked · bounded via clamp −1/+1
◈
Budget Signal N_reco
A bounded directional signal: scale, hold, or reduce. Derived from regime state — not from yesterday's CPA. Hysteresis prevents overreaction. Range: −1 (reduce) to +1 (scale).
Hysteresis-gated · bounded continuous · state-derived
◈
Redistribution Signal D_reco
Shows whether your audience is deepening into core engagement or diffusing outward. Positive D_reco: tighten targeting. Negative: broaden reach. Derived from redistribution slope, not click counts.
Redistribution analogue · dS derivative · audience concentration proxy
◈
ACTIVE Timeline
A visual history of every period your campaign was genuinely active versus dormant — computed via hysteresis on S_L, not platform-reported delivery windows. See the real activation pattern.
ACTIVE[t] = 1 when S_L ≥ θ_on · 0 when S_L ≤ θ_off · held by hysteresis
◈
Exportable JSON Record
Every PBA run exports a complete structured JSON — model parameters, PC1 weights, signal series, regime timeline, and both guidance signals. Full audit trail your team can verify or hand off.
Includes: feature columns, μ/σ, pc1_weights, S0, θ_on, θ_off, full series

The Module

Inside PBA

Upload your CSV, select the Ads KPI preset, hit Compute. The Action Panel delivers your regime classification and both guidance signals immediately. Simple mode requires no configuration. Advanced mode exposes control window, sign-lock, and column mapping for power users and agencies.

All runs are logged to local history. Export JSON at any time. Save to persistent storage for multi-session tracking when connected.

Start Modeling — $29 / Month

Includes full OS access · All modules

PBA Module — Setup panel with CSV ingest
Auto-detect columns
Ads KPI Preset
Setup Panel · CSV Ingest · Preset Selection
PBA Module — Action Panel with regime and signals
Regime: Stable
S_L Timeline
N_reco · D_reco signals
Action Panel · S_L Timeline · N_reco + D_reco · Run History
"Every campaign has internal structure — a regime it occupies, a direction it is moving. PBA is the first campaign modeling engine built around structural instability and regime detection — not another dashboard reacting to yesterday's CPA."

— Perfection Basin Advertising  ·  NOURI-IAERAU OS

Your Campaigns
Have Internal Structure.
Now You Can See It.

PBA gives you regime-level visibility into every campaign you run. Upload your CSV, get your signal, make your move — in minutes. No configuration required to get your first read.

Start Modeling Campaigns — $29 / Month

Instant access  ·  PBA module ready on login  ·  Cancel anytime

Also includes: BF-EW Workshop · Eye-Tech · Guest Life · Full NOURI-IAERAU OS